ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, worldwide cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This projection indicates a 2% decrease from the historic high recorded in 2025. Additionally, the forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this annual reduction, global cereal output would still rank as the second highest on record, with a total decline of around 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
In recent months, maize has contributed significantly to the downward outlook, with production expected to be 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and hot weather conditions have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the most notable downward adjustments. Smaller reductions were also seen in India and Paraguay, while increased yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset part of the decline. Both South American nations remain on track for maize harvests well above their recent averages.
Meanwhile, prospects for wheat have seen some improvement compared to earlier assessments, although global production still falls short of last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior predictions. Improved yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine have risen, whereas dry conditions led to reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, world wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Weakening maize yields weigh heavily on global grain supplies
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is anticipated to reach 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to this outlook. However, these gains could not fully compensate for weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Additionally, U.S. rice planting area has shrunk to levels not seen in decades, diminishing the country’s expected share of the global rice supply.
Looking ahead, worldwide cereal consumption is forecasted at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, up by 0.2% compared to the previous season. The use of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, whereas wheat consumption is projected to ease from last season’s high. Rice consumption globally is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by increasing food demand associated with population growth. Coarse grain use, including barley in China and maize in the United States, also benefits from feed demand.
Global cereal reserves stay elevated despite cautious outlook
Season-end cereal inventories worldwide for 2027 are projected at 947.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast but still 1.8 million tonnes above the initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio across the globe is expected to reach 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Countries like Russia and Ukraine are expected to see increased wheat reserves, while reductions in maize and barley stocks largely account for the overall decrease in global stock estimates.
International trade in cereals for 2026/27 is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier projections. Nevertheless, this volume remains below the record levels seen in 2025/26. The rise is predominantly driven by higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. For rice, global trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record set during 2025.